The 2026 midterm elections could allow states across the country to form a coalition that alters future presidential elections.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, first introduced in 2006, has picked up momentum as Democrats across the country see the potential for big wins down the ballot.
The compact aims to include states across the country where legislatures choose to award presidential electors to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of whether that result contradicts a state’s outcome.
The compact aims to recruit enough states to pass the 270 electoral vote threshold that determines a presidential candidate. Currently, 18 states and the District of Columbia are included in the compact, representing 222 electoral votes.
“The power to award electors is the exclusive power of the state legislature under Article II, section 1,” Patrick Rosensteil, senior consultant for the National Popular Vote coalition, told The Center Square in an email. “National Popular Vote allows legislators to deliver what a vast majority of voters want – a National Popular Vote for President.”
The midterm elections pose an opportunity for Democratic legislators amenable to joining the coalition that may push its representatives beyond 270 electoral votes. Partisan trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona – which election analysts say are all possible in 2026 – could give the National Popular Vote Compact 267 electoral votes.
Additionally, legislatures in Wisconsin or Nevada could allow candidates to cross the threshold in November. Jason Snead, director of the Honest Elections Project, said the project would require amending the Constitution, a process organizers don’t plan to adopt.
“Instead of going through the difficult process of getting supermajority support in Congress and ratification amongst a supermajority of the states, they hit on the idea of doing a compact between the states,” Snead told The Center Square in an interview.
Rosensteil argued the U.S. Constitution allows states to have broad discretion in how presidential electors are selected.
“States have far-reaching authority under Article II, section 1 over their choice of method of appointing presidential electors,” he said.
Arrticle II, section 1, clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution reads: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.”
Snead also criticized the compact’s membership. He pointed out that all 18 states involved are made up of Democratic trifectas, meaning the state House, Senate and governors office are led by Democrats. On April 13, Virginia became the most recent state to agree with the compact, adding 13 electoral votes.
“All that’s happened is you’ve had this extraordinarily partisan thing develop, where only the Democrats and only the left are signed on to the idea of the NPV compact,” Snead said. “You’re really fundamentally playing with fire, and you are putting at risk the entire constitutional system.”
Rosenstiel disagreed that the compact was a partisan operation. He said accusations of partisanship are a common misconception with the organization.
“National Popular Vote is – and has always been – a movement of conservatives, liberals and moderates; Republicans, Democrats and Independents who want a better politics and to elect the president by national popular votes,” Rosenstiel said.
Rosenstiel highlighted legislatures in Oklahoma, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada where bills on the National Popular Vote compact have passed one or both chambers. Republicans in Arizona’s state House passed national popular vote legislation in 2016, but the movement failed to advance beyond the lower chamber.
No Republican governor has signed the current national popular vote legislation into law. Snead also said he was concerned about the practicality of states adopting the national popular vote compact.
He raised a scenario where California Gov. Gavin Newsom was forced to certify the state’s electors for Donald Trump in 2024. Snead said this was an unlikely outcome.
“It’s now become something that could actually be activated, and nobody’s really thought through all of the ramifications or is prepared to accept all of the ramifications, and take ownership of them,” Snead said.
Rosenstiel dismissed concerns over state differences with implementation of the compact. He said controversy with the program would not be persistent.
“There will be no controversy. There will be no confusion,” Rosenstiel wrote. “The winner of the national popular vote will be duly elected and every voter will have been equally relevant in the presidential election.”
Results from the 2026 midterm elections could significantly sway how the compact is implemented. The outcome could have an effect on the 2028 presidential election and beyond.
