With the 2028 presidential election just over two years away, Vice President JD Vance is gaining steam, reaching a high of 44% support in the latest of five Republican presidential primary polls conducted by The Center Square over the past year.
The Center Square conducted polls on the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in October 2025, March, June, August and from Oct. 5-7, 2026. Vance received 38% in the first poll, which included nine prominent Republicans, but his share climbed to 41% in August and 44% this month, even as the number of Republicans included in the survey grew to 14.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in a distant second behind Vance at 18%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 8% and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with 5%.
“Often when a president faces term limits, his support among his base transfers automatically to his vice president. That is what we see here powering JD Vance’s early lead in 2028, rivalled only by the draw of the most prominent cabinet member in Secretary of State Rubio,” said Thad Kousser, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, in an email to The Center Square. “Each has drawn strong support because of their proximity to President Trump.”
Vance’s numbers were consistent across demographic, geographic and party-affiliation groups surveyed, hovering in the 40s across nearly every category. Among respondents, 44% of men and 43% of women chose Vance, while support varied by just three percentage points across age groups, from 42% among voters ages 30-44 to 45% among those 65 and older. His support varied little across education levels, staying within a four-point range.
The largest difference was between Republicans, 45% of whom supported Vance, and Republican-leaning independents, at 35%. Black respondents were the only other group in which fewer than 40% chose Vance, at 39%, while he fared best among Midwestern respondents, at 50%.
By comparison, former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has consistently led among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in The Center Square’s polling, saw her support vary by as much as 34 percentage points across age groups, with differences of 20 points or more across several other demographic categories.
Rubio’s support varied considerably more by age, ranging from just 7% among voters ages 18-29 to 26% among those 65 and older.
But how well these early polling numbers hold up could depend on the outcome of November’s midterm elections, Kousser said. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance could reinforce the current picture, while major GOP losses could change what primary voters are looking for.
“Proximity to the president could become a liability and primary voters may look for someone with more distance from President Trump instead,” he said.
Others included in the poll were Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin; U.S. Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Katie Britt of Alabama; former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem; and Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee for Ohio governor.
The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 5-7, surveying registered voters nationwide through an opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone messages. The weighted sample included 1,011 Republicans and 126 Republican-leaning independents.
