(The Center Square) – Republican Congressman Mike Lawler and Democratic challenger Cait Conley are locked in a tight race in New York’s 17th Congressional District, which could help decide which party controls the lower chamber next year, according to a new poll.
The survey from Emerson College Polling, released Thursday, shows Conley leading Lawler, 48% to 46% among likely general election voters. At least 7% were still undecided, pollsters said.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Democratic crossover support for Lawler has fallen eight points to 12%, while Republican support for the Democrat rose six points, to 10%, suggesting those voters are breaking for Conley. Those crossover votes are considered crucial to either candidate to win in the purple district. Two years ago, Lawler was five points ahead of his Democratic rival at the time.
“In the 2024 Emerson NY-17 poll, 20% of Democrats supported Rep. Lawler, while 4% of Republicans supported the Democrat, Mondaire Jones,” Kimball said in a statement.
Lawler’s favorability is also split, according to pollsters, who found 45% of those surveyed have a “favorable” view of him and 46% an “unfavorable” view, pollster said. Conley has a higher share of neutral voters, pollsters said, with 44% having a “favorable” view of her, 35% “unfavorable” and 22% neutral, according to the poll, suggesting many voters aren’t familiar with her candidacy.
There is also an enthusiasm gap among voters “very excited” to participate in the November election, who break for Conley by seven points, while those “somewhat excited” break for Lawler by 12 points, or 52% to 40%, pollsters said.
Since October 2024, Lawler’s favorability decreased seven points, from 52% to 45%, and his unfavorable rating increased four points, from 42% to 46%, according to the poll.
Lawler’s popularity appears to be dragged down by his support from President Donald Trump, a former New Yorker whom the poll shows is deeply unpopular ahead of the midterms. Trump attended a May rally with Lawler in the 17th District, where he boasted about his administration’s economic policies, and urge voters to support Lawler’s reelection
New York’s 17th Congressional District is considered a key House battleground in the upcoming midterms, when control of Congress is out for grabs. The swing district has gone back-and-forth between Republican and Democratic representatives over the years. Democrat Kamala Harris won the district in the 2024 presidential election. The Cook Political Report has rated the 17th district a toss-up.
Lawler was first elected to the Hudson Valley seat in 2022 after defeating Democrat Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who at the time was head of House Democrats’ campaign arm. Lawler’s victory marked the first general election defeat for a campaign chair of either party in decades.
Conley, a U.S. Army veteran and former counterintelligence official, is making her first run for Congress after emerging from a crowded Democratic primary, where she edged out four other candidates to win the party’s nomination to challenge Lawler in the fall.
The Emerson survey, conducted between Sept. 27-29, found voters in the 17th Congressional District overwhelmingly view the economy as the top issue facing the state, or 31% of those polled, followed by “threats to democracy” at 23%, immigration at 13%, and housing affordability at 12%.
The poll also gauged voters’ views in the congressional district about the ongoing war in Iran. A majority of voters, or 52%, disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran, while 37% support it, and 11% are unsure, pollsters said.
