(The Center Square) – Democrat Bob Brooks holds a narrow lead over GOP U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the closely watched race for Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, according to a new poll.
Forty-one percent of respondents said they would vote for Brooks if the election were being held today, while 37% said they would vote for Mackenzie in a Franklin & Marshall College poll of registered voters in the 7th Congressional District conducted between Sept. 9-20. However, 21% said they were still undecided.
Of those polled, 84% said they were absolutely certain that they would vote for that specific candidate in the upcoming election, while 16% said they were still making up their mind, and 1% said they didn’t know.
When “leaners” were taken into consideration, 45% said they were supporting Brooks, while 40% said Mackenzie, and 16% were undecided.
The contest between Mackenzie, a freshman congressman who previously served in Pennsylvania’s General Assembly, and Brooks, a firefighters’ union leader, is expected to be one of the races that could determine which party is in the majority in 2027.
Mackenzie was elected to Congress in 2024 by defeating incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild by roughly 4,000 votes. His one-point victory was the closest Congressional race in Pennsylvania that year.
Mackenzie was unopposed in the GOP primary in the spring, while Brooks won a crowded primary election to earn the Democratic Party nomination.
The Cook Political Report, which describes the race as a “toss up” said that “Pennsylvania’s 7th District, nestled in the Lehigh Valley, is a rare true swing seat,” in an analysis earlier this year. “Donald Trump won the district by three points in 2016, lost it by less than a point in 2020, and then won it again by three points last year.”
Although Trump won the state’s 19 electoral votes in 2024 over Vice President Kamala Harris and carried the district in the Lehigh Valley, this latest poll shows that his approval rating is underwater.
Sixty percent of those polled in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District said Trump’s doing a “poor” job as president. Thirteen percent said that Trump was doing a “fair” job as president, while another 13% said he was doing a “good” job, and 12% said he was doing an “excellent” job.
Trump is backing Mackenzie’s bid for a second term and boosted his candidacy in a visit to the Lehigh Valley in June. Mackenzie, earlier this month, took the stage at the Republican Party’s midterm convention in Texas and touted reforms passed by Trump and the GOP majority since the president won his second term.
Gov. Josh Shapiro issued his support for Brooks in the primary election and has campaigned with him since he earned the Democratic Party nomination. The governor, who will be on the ballot this November against Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity, holds positive ratings in the Lehigh Valley-based congressional district.
Twenty-five percent polled said that Shapiro is doing a “good” job as governor, while another 18% said that he’s done an “excellent” job, and 19% said he’s done a “fair” job. Twenty-five percent said that Shapiro has done a “poor” job as governor, while 13% said that they didn’t know.
While Brooks and Mackenzie are neck-and-neck for the 7th Congressional District, Shapiro holds a sizable lead over Garrity in the district.
Forty-nine percent polled in the 7th Congressional District said they would vote for Shapiro for governor, if the election were held today, while 29% said they would vote for Garrity. Eighteen percent said they were undecided, while another 4% said they were voting for a different option between Shapiro and Garrity.
The race between Brooks and Mackenzie has also been an expensive one.
According to the most recent campaign finance report, released in July, Mackenzie’s campaign has raised $4.45 million since late 2024, the seventh-highest among congressional candidates in Pennsylvania. Brooks has raised $2.39 million since he launched his campaign in August.
Mackenzie’s campaign entered July with $2.93 million on hand, while Brooks had $1.01 million. However, Brooks outraised Mackenzie in the most recent two-month stretch available, raising $1.22 million from April 30 to the end of June, while Mackenzie raised just over $630,000.
The two candidates have been on the airwaves with ads and are slated to face off in a debate on Oct. 21.
