(The Center Square) – Republicans who want to keep at least one leg of Harrisburg’s three-legged governance stool have a “block out the noise” attitude in an election campaign where some think Democrats could grab all three: the Senate, House, and Governor’s Office.
James Markley, executive director of the Pennsylvania GOP, spoke of that attitude with less than two weeks to go until the Nov. 3 contest. Right now, his party controls only the Senate, and its candidates must push forward in an environment that pollsters says is grim for Republicans.
“We can’t trust the polls. The only poll that matters is the one that is counted on election day,” Markley said. Across the state, candidates are knocking on doors and making phone calls and doing grass-roots campaigning as they “block out the noise.”
It is loud.
“As toxic as I have seen it in a long time, against Republicans and the Republican brand,” is how Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, described the current feel of party politics. “The toxicity in the political environment will benefit Democrats up and down the ballot.”
Chris Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory and a professor of political science, said the combined unpopularity of Republican President Donald Trump and the polling strength of Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is a challenge for Pennsylvania GOP candidates.
“If you can draw a worse scenario for down-ballot Republicans, I would be hard-pressed to imagine it,” Borick said.
Both pollsters said Shapiro’s lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity is roughly 20 percentage points, giving Democrats a strong chance of keeping the Governor’s Office.
Democrats have a 103-100 hold on the state House that many observers see as difficult to break. However, all 203 seats will be on the ballot and there are many competitive races.
The Senate, now under Republican control at 27-23, will have half of its 50 seats on the ballot. Borick and Lee, in separate interviews, both said it was possible Democrats could gain a majority.
Some of the most-watched races are:
Senate District 6 incumbent Republican Frank Farry of Bucks County is being challenged by Democrat Eileen Albillar. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 9,000 in the district, but there are more than 26,000 voters there with no party affiliation.Senate District 16 incumbent Republican Jarrett Coleman is being challenged by Democrat Mark Pinsley in a rematch of 2022. Coleman was a school director and state-level political newcomer four years ago when he ousted the high-profile Republican Pat Browne in the primary, and then defeated Pinsley. Twice elected Lehigh County controller, Pinsley also ran an unsuccessful campaign for auditor general in 2024.Senate District 24 incumbent Republican Tracy Pennycuick of Montgomery County faces Democratic challenger Christopher Thomas as well as Green Party candidate Michael Schonewolf Jr. Four years ago, Pennycuick, then a member of the state House, defeated Democrat Jill Dennin by a roughly 52-48% margin after the seat was left open by the retirement of Republican Sen. Bob Mensch.Senate District 40 incumbent Republican Rosemary Brown of Monroe County is being challenged by Democrat Brian Wrightson. Brown was a 12-year member of the state House in 2022 when she defeated Democrat Jennifer Shukaitis by a roughly 55-45% margin for the Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of Republican Mario Scavello.
Within those four districts – all touching or close to the eastern edge of the state – could lie the balance of power in the Senate and perhaps the key to a Democratic “trifecta,” according to Borick. He said it is not unreasonable to speculate Democrats could flip two of the four.
At the same time, the re-election of Democratic Sen. James Malone in Lancaster County is far from a lock.
Malone was first elected in an upset victory in a March special election for the District 36 seat when he defeated Lancaster County Commissioner Josh Parsons. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 40,000 in the district, and Malone is being challenged by Republican state Rep. Tom Jones.
Also garnering attention is Senate District 46, where incumbent Republican Sen. Camera Bartolotta is facing a challenge from Independent party candidate Jodi Borello. While Bartolotta has been in the seat more than 11 years and won the 2026 primary in the heavily Republican district, the Washington County Republican Party executive committee carried out a no-confidence vote in her work early this year.
A spokesperson for the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, Michael Straw, said Malone is vulnerable and that Democrats are “banking” on holding that seat.
Straw called re-electing Bartolotta and protecting the Senate majority a “top priority” for Republicans. Bartolotta, he said, has “a record of accomplishment for her district” that includes supporting tax cuts, backing law enforcement, and helping to defeat the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.
The chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, Lori McFarland, said she is seeing energy, motivation, and excitement about voting among Democrats in her county. Members of the party have knocked on at least 56,000 doors since the primary, according to McFarland.
McFarland believes the person setting the tone for the entire election is Trump, and that voters’ belief in whether he is benefitting or harming the country will have an impact on many races.
