About two weeks out from midterm election day, a new poll shows that Republicans face slim odds of maintaining control of Congress through 2028, as voters’ support levels haven’t budged since August.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll revealed that 47% of U.S. registered voters surveyed would vote for a Democratic candidate if elections were held today, while 42% would vote for a Republican – the exact same ratio featured in the August Voters’ Voice Poll. Eight percent of voters haven’t made up their minds yet.
The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 5-7, 2026, and surveyed registered voters nationally via opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone messages. The weighted sample included 2,527 respondents comprised of 1,136 Republicans, 1,171 Democrats, and 220 True Independents (Independents who, when asked if they leaned toward one of the major parties, chose neither).
Although a quarter of Independents are still unsure of which party they will vote for, those who have made up their minds are leaning toward Democrats, with 39% choosing a Democratic candidate and 26% a Republican.
True Independents were almost twice as likely to choose a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate, though a hefty 44% are still undecided.
All age groups except seniors at least slightly favored a Democratic candidate, younger voters in particular. Only 32% of respondents ages 18 through 29 chose a Republican candidate while 55% chose a Democrat. Margins were slimmer among Millennial and Gen X voters.
Republicans received highest support – though never more than 51% – from white, male, and rural voters, while Democrats received the highest support from minority, female, and urban voters. Voters across all education levels also preferred Democrats.
Democrats have blamed Republicans for the rising cost of gas, groceries, and healthcare, some of which is due to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the Trump administration’s tariff policy.
Even without Republicans’ political woes, political parties in power generally perform poorly during midterm elections.
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 1.95%.
