(The Center Square) – A new poll shows Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson holding a slight advantage over Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
According to a Franklin & Marshall College poll of registered voters in the 10th Congressional District, 46% said they would vote for Stelson if the election were being held today, while 42% said they would vote for Perry. Twelve percent said they were still undecided in the poll conducted between Sept. 9-20.
Of those polled who selected either Stelson or Perry, 89% said they were absolutely certain they would vote for that candidate in the upcoming election, while 11% said they were still making up their minds.
When “leaners” were taken into account, 47% said they were supporting Stelson, while 44% said Perry, and 9% remained undecided.
Perry, former chair of the conservative U.S. House Freedom Caucus, is serving his seventh term in Congress. Stelson is a former central Pennsylvania television anchor.
The closely watched race in November is a rematch for the seat in southcentral Pennsylvania. Perry defeated Stelson by 1.2 points in 2024, which was his tightest race since winning a seat in the U.S. House.
National ratings outlets, like The Cook Political Report, describe the race as a “toss up,” and said “both parties view the congressman as one of the most vulnerable House Republicans in the country.”
Despite Trump winning Pennsylvania over Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, a majority of voters in the state’s 10th Congressional District disapprove of his job performance.
Fifty-seven percent in the district said Trump is doing a “poor” job as president. Fifteen percent said Trump is doing a “fair” job as president, while 14% said he’s doing a “good” job, and 13% said he’s doing an “excellent” job.
Perry, an ally of Trump’s, is being backed by the president in his bid for reelection. Gov. Josh Shapiro is supporting Stelson’s campaign and endorsed her shortly after she announced she was running for the seat in July 2025.
Shapiro, who is seeking a second term this November, will be facing a challenge from Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity. The governor holds a positive approval rating among registered voters in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
Thirty-one percent said that Shapiro is doing a “good” job as governor, while 17% said he’s doing an “excellent” job, and 18% said he’s doing a “fair” job. Twenty-nine percent said that Shapiro has done a “poor” job as governor, while 5% said that they didn’t know.
Polling shows Perry and Stelson locked in a close matchup for the 10th Congressional District. However, Shapiro holds a massive lead over Garrity in these boundaries.
Fifty-two percent in the district said they would vote for Shapiro for governor if the election were held today, while 28% said they would vote for Garrity. Fourteen percent said they were undecided and 7% said they were voting for a different option between Shapiro and Garrity.
Campaign finance reports show that Perry and Stelson are raising a lot of money, as the outcome of their matchup could determine which party will hold the majority next year. Stelson’s campaign raised $6.36 million she’s raised since entering the race in July 2025 until the end of June, which is when the most recent campaign finance report was released. Her total is more than any Pennsylvania congressional candidate over the past year. As of July 1, Perry has raised $5.25 million throughout the current election cycle, ranking fourth among Pennsylvania candidates, trailing only U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-1st District, Stelson, and U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, R-8th District.
Entering July, Stelson’s campaign had $4.47 million on hand, while Perry’s campaign had $2.84 million.
Perry and Stelson will meet for a debate on Oct. 14.
